DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/22 11:43
Grains Mixed At Midday
Soybeans are the midday leader, with corn and wheat flat to lower.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
U.S. stock market indices are mixed at midday with the Dow futures down 8
points. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 15 lower.
Energies are higher with crude up 0.65. Livestock trade is mostly higher.
Precious metals are mixed with gold 0.50 higher.
Corn trade is fractionally lower at midday with trade chopping right around
the 50-day moving average in light two-sided trade. Ethanol margins are
slightly tighter with ethanol futures slightly lower. Basis is expected to be
steady to start the week with corn movement slow to start. Blizzard conditions
will support livestock consumption but warmer weather is expected again on the
backside of the system. With the government shutdown, export inspections were
still released today from last week, but will be postponed coming forward if
the shutdown continues, with 668,946 metric tons moved last week. On the March
chart support is the 50-day at $3.52 we closed above to close last week, with
the 20-day at $3.51 below that, and resistance at the 100-day at $3.58. March
futures have been in an 8 1/2 cent trading range for the past six weeks.
Soybean trade is 5 to 8 cents higher at midday with the March contract
testing resistance to open the week with drier weather in Argentina continuing
in the immediate term. Meal is $5.00 to $6.00 higher and oil is 5 to 15 points
higher. South American weather looks to continue the recent pattern with more
improvement expected in the north later in the week. Basis and carry remains
mostly sideways. Export inspections were the best in a month at 1.419 million
metric tons. On the March, support is the 10-day and 20-day $9.65 and
resistance the 200-day at $9.79, which we have moved above overnight, along
with the 50-day at $9.83, with the 100-day at $9.86 above that which we are
testing at midday.
Wheat trade is mixed at midday with the market reluctant to extend gains so
far with corn turning weaker. Warmer weather should be the rule in the near
term, but moisture will likely remain short in the near term for much of the
plains. The dollar remains below 91 on the index with the trend still lower,
with rallies being sold especially with the government shut down ongoing. The
gap between U.S. and Russian origin has narrowed but remains more favorable to
Russia. Weekly export inspections improved slightly to 337,980 metric tons. On
the March Kansas City contract, chart support is the lows at $4.10, with the
weekly low of $4.21 becoming nearby support with the 10,20, and 50-day moving
averages concentrated at $4.30 which we are tested overnight.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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